# RelationshipIQ - Financial Model
## 18-Month Projections | Pre-Seed to Series A

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# ASSUMPTIONS

## User Acquisition

| Metric | Value | Notes |
|--------|-------|-------|
| **CAC (Blended)** | €4.50 | Organic (€2) + Paid (€7) weighted average |
| **Organic %** | 50% | Content marketing, SEO, social media |
| **Paid %** | 50% | Social ads, Google Ads, influencers |
| **Conversion Rate** | 5% | Free → Paid (industry: 3-7%) |
| **Monthly Growth** | 30-50% | Months 1-6, then 20-30% |

## Retention & Churn

| Metric | Value | Notes |
|--------|-------|-------|
| **7-Day Retention** | 40% | Daily habit formation |
| **30-Day Retention** | 25% | Meaningful progress shown |
| **Monthly Churn** | 8% | Industry: 10-15% |
| **Average Subscription** | 12 months | Before churn |

## Pricing

| Tier | Monthly | Annual | ARPU (Annual) |
|------|---------|--------|---------------|
| **Premium Individual** | €9.99 | €69 | €69 |
| **Premium Couples** | €14.99 | €99 | €99 |
| **Blended ARPU** | - | - | €75 |

## Costs

| Category | Monthly | Annual | Notes |
|----------|---------|--------|-------|
| **Firebase & Infrastructure** | €1,250 | €15,000 | Scales with users |
| **Development** | €6,667 | €80,000 | Contract React Native dev |
| **Advisors** | €5,000 | €60,000 | Psychology, ethics, growth |
| **Marketing** | €5,000 | €60,000 | User acquisition |
| **Operations** | €3,333 | €40,000 | Legal, accounting, tools |
| **Total Monthly Burn** | €21,250 | €255,000 | Year 1 average |

---

# MONTH-BY-MONTH PROJECTIONS

## Year 1: Months 1-12

| Month | MAU | New Users | Paying Users | MRR | Costs | Net Burn | Cumulative Burn |
|-------|-----|-----------|--------------|-----|-------|----------|-----------------|
| **M1** | 100 | 100 | 0 | €0 | €25,000 | -€25,000 | -€25,000 |
| **M2** | 250 | 150 | 5 | €375 | €25,000 | -€24,625 | -€49,625 |
| **M3** | 500 | 250 | 15 | €1,125 | €25,000 | -€23,875 | -€73,500 |
| **M4** | 1,000 | 500 | 50 | €3,750 | €22,000 | -€18,250 | -€91,750 |
| **M5** | 1,500 | 500 | 75 | €5,625 | €22,000 | -€16,375 | -€108,125 |
| **M6** | 2,250 | 750 | 113 | €8,475 | €22,000 | -€13,525 | -€121,650 |
| **M7** | 3,000 | 750 | 150 | €11,250 | €20,000 | -€8,750 | -€130,400 |
| **M8** | 3,900 | 900 | 195 | €14,625 | €20,000 | -€5,375 | -€135,775 |
| **M9** | 4,875 | 975 | 244 | €18,300 | €20,000 | -€1,700 | -€137,475 |
| **M10** | 5,850 | 975 | 293 | €21,975 | €18,000 | €3,975 | -€133,500 |
| **M11** | 6,825 | 975 | 341 | €25,575 | €18,000 | €7,575 | -€125,925 |
| **M12** | 8,000 | 1,175 | 400 | €30,000 | €18,000 | €12,000 | -€113,925 |

## Year 2: Months 13-18 (Series A Prep)

| Month | MAU | New Users | Paying Users | MRR | Costs | Net Burn | Cumulative Burn |
|-------|-----|-----------|--------------|-----|-------|----------|-----------------|
| **M13** | 8,800 | 800 | 440 | €33,000 | €16,000 | €17,000 | -€96,925 |
| **M14** | 9,240 | 440 | 462 | €34,650 | €16,000 | €18,650 | -€78,275 |
| **M15** | 9,702 | 462 | 485 | €36,375 | €16,000 | €20,375 | -€57,900 |
| **M16** | 10,000 | 298 | 500 | €37,500 | €15,000 | €22,500 | -€35,400 |
| **M17** | 10,300 | 300 | 515 | €38,625 | €15,000 | €23,625 | -€11,775 |
| **M18** | 10,600 | 300 | 530 | €39,750 | €15,000 | €24,750 | €12,975 |

---

# KEY METRICS SUMMARY

## User Growth

| Metric | Month 6 | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|---------|----------|----------|
| **Total MAU** | 2,250 | 8,000 | 10,600 |
| **Paying Users** | 113 | 400 | 530 |
| **Conversion Rate** | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| **Monthly Growth** | 50% | 30% | 5% |

## Revenue

| Metric | Month 6 | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|---------|----------|----------|
| **MRR** | €8,475 | €30,000 | €39,750 |
| **ARR** | €101,700 | €360,000 | €477,000 |
| **ARPU** | €75 | €75 | €75 |
| **LTV** | €50 | €50 | €50 |

## Unit Economics

| Metric | Month 6 | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|---------|----------|----------|
| **CAC** | €4.50 | €4.50 | €4.50 |
| **LTV** | €50 | €50 | €50 |
| **LTV:CAC** | 11.1x | 11.1x | 11.1x |
| **Payback Period** | 2.7 months | 2.7 months | 2.7 months |

## Burn & Runway

| Metric | Month 6 | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|---------|----------|----------|
| **Monthly Burn** | -€13,525 | €12,000 | €24,750 |
| **Cumulative Burn** | -€121,650 | -€113,925 | €12,975 |
| **Runway (from €400K)** | 29 months | Infinite | Infinite |
| **Cash Position** | €278,350 | €286,075 | €412,975 |

---

# DETAILED BREAKDOWN

## Revenue Build-Up

### Month 6 (Q2 2026)
- MAU: 2,250
- Paying users: 113 (5% conversion)
- MRR: 113 × €75 = €8,475
- ARR: €101,700

### Month 12 (Q4 2026)
- MAU: 8,000
- Paying users: 400 (5% conversion)
- MRR: 400 × €75 = €30,000
- ARR: €360,000

### Month 18 (Q2 2027 - Series A)
- MAU: 10,600
- Paying users: 530 (5% conversion)
- MRR: 530 × €75 = €39,750
- ARR: €477,000

## Cost Structure Evolution

### Months 1-3 (Beta Phase)
- High burn: €25K/month
- Focus: Product development, zero-knowledge implementation
- No revenue (free beta)

### Months 4-6 (Launch Phase)
- Moderate burn: €22K/month
- Focus: User acquisition, premium launch
- Early revenue: €1K-8K MRR

### Months 7-12 (Growth Phase)
- Decreasing burn: €20K → €18K/month
- Focus: Scaling acquisition, Android launch
- Growing revenue: €11K → €30K MRR

### Months 13-18 (Series A Prep)
- Low burn: €16K → €15K/month
- Focus: Profitability, metrics optimization
- Strong revenue: €33K → €40K MRR
- **Break-even: Month 16**
- **Profitable: Month 17+**

---

# SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

## Scenario 1: Conservative (70% of Plan)

| Metric | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|----------|----------|
| MAU | 5,600 | 7,420 |
| Paying Users | 280 | 371 |
| MRR | €21,000 | €27,825 |
| ARR | €252,000 | €333,900 |
| Cumulative Burn | -€145,000 | -€85,000 |

**Outcome:** Still Series A ready, longer runway needed

## Scenario 2: Base Case (100% of Plan)

| Metric | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|----------|----------|
| MAU | 8,000 | 10,600 |
| Paying Users | 400 | 530 |
| MRR | €30,000 | €39,750 |
| ARR | €360,000 | €477,000 |
| Cumulative Burn | -€113,925 | €12,975 |

**Outcome:** Series A ready, profitable by Month 17

## Scenario 3: Optimistic (130% of Plan)

| Metric | Month 12 | Month 18 |
|--------|----------|----------|
| MAU | 10,400 | 13,780 |
| Paying Users | 520 | 689 |
| MRR | €39,000 | €51,675 |
| ARR | €468,000 | €620,100 |
| Cumulative Burn | -€85,000 | €95,000 |

**Outcome:** Strong Series A position, highly profitable

---

# SERIES A READINESS

## Target Metrics (Month 18)

| Metric | Target | Projected | Status |
|--------|--------|-----------|--------|
| **MAU** | 10,000+ | 10,600 | ✅ |
| **MRR** | €30,000+ | €39,750 | ✅ |
| **ARR** | €360,000+ | €477,000 | ✅ |
| **7-Day Retention** | 40%+ | 40% | ✅ |
| **30-Day Retention** | 25%+ | 25% | ✅ |
| **Conversion Rate** | 5%+ | 5% | ✅ |
| **LTV:CAC** | 10x+ | 11.1x | ✅ |
| **NPS** | 50+ | TBD | 🎯 |

## Series A Raise Potential

**Projected Valuation:** €15M - €25M
- Based on: 50-70x MRR multiple
- €39,750 MRR × 50-70 = €15M - €25M

**Potential Raise:** €3M - €5M
- Dilution: 15-20%
- Use: Scale to 100K users, international expansion

---

# CASH FLOW SUMMARY

## Pre-Seed Round (€400K)

| Period | Revenue | Costs | Net | Cumulative |
|--------|---------|-------|-----|------------|
| **Q1 2026** | €1,500 | €75,000 | -€73,500 | -€73,500 |
| **Q2 2026** | €17,850 | €66,000 | -€48,150 | -€121,650 |
| **Q3 2026** | €44,175 | €60,000 | -€15,825 | -€137,475 |
| **Q4 2026** | €77,550 | €54,000 | €23,550 | -€113,925 |
| **Q1 2027** | €104,025 | €48,000 | €56,025 | -€57,900 |
| **Q2 2027** | €115,875 | €45,000 | €70,875 | €12,975 |

**Key Milestones:**
- Month 10: First profitable month
- Month 16: Break-even (cumulative)
- Month 17: Profitable (ongoing)
- Month 18: €412,975 cash position

**Runway:** 29+ months from €400K raise (infinite after Month 16)

---

# ASSUMPTIONS VALIDATION

## User Acquisition

**CAC €4.50 Justification:**
- Organic (50%): €2 CAC (content marketing, SEO)
- Paid (50%): €7 CAC (social ads, influencers)
- Industry benchmark: €5-15 CAC
- Our advantage: Viral content (attachment theory trending)

**5% Conversion Justification:**
- Industry: 3-7% for freemium wellness apps
- Our advantages:
  - Strong value proposition (privacy + science)
  - 7-day free trial (prove value)
  - Personalization (higher relevance)
  - Social proof (testimonials)

## Retention & LTV

**€50 LTV Justification:**
- €75 ARPU × 12 months × (1 - 8% monthly churn)
- 12-month average subscription length
- Conservative estimate (industry: €30-70)

**8% Monthly Churn Justification:**
- Industry: 10-15% for wellness apps
- Our advantages:
  - Daily habit formation (check-ins)
  - Measurable progress (health score)
  - Personalization (reduces generic fatigue)
  - Privacy trust (no scandal risk)

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# RISK FACTORS & MITIGATION

## Risk 1: Lower Conversion (3% vs. 5%)

**Impact:** 40% less revenue
- Month 12 MRR: €18K (vs. €30K)
- Series A delayed 3-6 months

**Mitigation:**
- A/B test pricing and trial length
- Improve onboarding (show value faster)
- Add social proof (testimonials)

## Risk 2: Higher CAC (€7 vs. €4.50)

**Impact:** 55% higher acquisition cost
- Need to reduce growth rate or raise more

**Mitigation:**
- Focus on organic (content, SEO)
- Optimize paid channels (better targeting)
- Referral program (lower CAC)

## Risk 3: Higher Churn (12% vs. 8%)

**Impact:** Lower LTV (€35 vs. €50)
- LTV:CAC drops to 7.8x (still good)

**Mitigation:**
- Improve product engagement
- Add couples features (higher retention)
- Personalization (reduce generic fatigue)

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# CONCLUSION

**Financial Viability:** ✅ Strong

- €400K funding provides 29+ months runway
- Break-even by Month 16
- Profitable by Month 17
- Series A ready by Month 18
- Strong unit economics (11x LTV:CAC)
- Capital-efficient growth

**Investment Opportunity:** Attractive risk/reward profile for pre-seed stage.

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*Model Version: 1.0*  
*Last Updated: January 2026*  
*Confidential - For Investor Review Only*